‘Super’ and ‘very large’ are adjectives that nobody wants attached to an approaching ‘typhoon’, especially at a time when millions of residents of Luzon have yet to recover from the destructive effects of the two previous ones, Ondoy (Ketsana) and Pepeng (Parma).

What does a super-typhoon or a category 5 tropical cyclone look like?

Typhoon Lupit satellite image, 19 Oct 2009

That’s a satellite image of Typhoon Lupit (local name: Ramil) yesterday, Monday, 19 October 2009, when it was classifed as a super-typhoon, packing winds of over 250 kilometres per hour (km/h). (Source: Joint Typhoon Warning Center)

It looked awesome to me (especially when seen on full-screen mode), impressive and frightening at the same time, after seeing what a ‘baby typhoon’ such as Ondoy, or a weaker typhoon like Pepeng, can do.

One of the few good outcomes of the country’s experience with the large-scale destructive effects of Ondoy and Pepeng typhoons is it has placed environmental issues at the top of the national agenda, and has pushed us all to examine our vulnerabilities to disasters, both natural and human-made.

It has forced us to not only debate but, more importantly, to begin agreeing and acting on strategic and sustainable ways to reduce these vulnerabilities at all levels—individual, household, community, and institutional (local and national, public and private).

It teaches us ‘humility’, as one scientist puts it, to respect nature and its powerful forces.

This morning, 20 October, Lupit (Ramil) was downgraded (thankfully) to ‘typhoon’ category, packing 195 km/h-winds, or to a category 3 tropical cyclone (wind speed of 178 to 209 km/h), and appears to be weakening further.

The cyclone’s ‘eye’ has become hazy (see image below from CIMSS) and doesn’t seem as intimidating as it was yesterday at category 5.

Typhoon Lupit satellite image, 20 Oct 2009

Nevertheless, it is still a powerful typhoon (stronger than Pepeng), and a very large system, with a diameter of 890 kilometres.

This means that even if the centre of the typhoon strikes northern Luzon, it is bound to affect significant parts of Central Luzon, maybe even parts of Metro Manila, because of its huge size. And, as with any weather system, its movement and intensity keep changing, so it is important to stay tuned to PAGASA.

How much rain is this typhoon bringing?

Lots of it, according to PAGASA. About 20 to 30 millimetres (0.78 to 1.18 inches) per hour, or a rainfall rate of 18.72 to 28.32 inches per day.

But the effects of the amount of rainfall are relative. In a situation where our soils are still soaked, our forests denuded, our waterways still clogged, our rivers and water reservoirs still silted, a day’s rain could mean floodwaters much higher than 18 to 28 inches.

But we also have the valuable (and far too costly) lessons of Ondoy and Pepeng, and a week’s warning of Lupit’s approach.

I hope that all the preparations being done in the past few days by various agencies and communities are for real (and not just for media consumption), and are adequate to meet Lupit’s challenge.

And that, consequently, next week, in the aftermath of Typhoon Lupit (Ramil), we are able to say that we, mere mortals, have started learning our lessons well and have begun to give nature the kind of respect it deserves.